Stuart: When I said I agreed 99.9999% with “P(P is never equal to 1)” it doesnt’t mean that I feel I could produce such a list—just that I have a very high belief that such a list could exist.
So, using Eliezer’s logic, would you expect that one time in a million, you’d get this wrong, and P = 1? I don’t need to you to produce a list. This is a case where no number of 9s will sort you out—if you assign a probability less than 1, you expect to be in error at some point, which leaves you up the creek. If I’m making a big fat error (and I fear I may be), someone please set me straight.
Stuart: When I said I agreed 99.9999% with “P(P is never equal to 1)” it doesnt’t mean that I feel I could produce such a list—just that I have a very high belief that such a list could exist.
So, using Eliezer’s logic, would you expect that one time in a million, you’d get this wrong, and P = 1? I don’t need to you to produce a list. This is a case where no number of 9s will sort you out—if you assign a probability less than 1, you expect to be in error at some point, which leaves you up the creek. If I’m making a big fat error (and I fear I may be), someone please set me straight.