I suspect I assign much more utility to FAI than you do. A slightly increased chance of success there, from having more intelligent people thinking about related questions, can make a large contribution to the expected value from my perspective. Now of course uFAI has a strongly negative utility, but we have to set that against the chance of humanity dying without any form of AI. The latter seems close to 1 in the long term (while post-FAI humanity has a greater chance of finding a way around entropy.) Even on more human timescales, it seems disturbingly large. This combined with the downsides of all your suggestions goes a long way towards removing the paradox.
I also assume the SIAI and people who agree with their take have a real chance of persuading the people who’d otherwise have the greatest chance of making an uFAI. You may disagree with this, of course, but if we can’t at least persuade a large fraction of the public then most of your suggestions seem pointless. Now if we persuaded the majority, but some group kept working on a new and dangerous-looking project, we’d have to consider what action to take. But violence still wouldn’t be my first or second choice.
Really, those seem like the main flaws?
I suspect I assign much more utility to FAI than you do. A slightly increased chance of success there, from having more intelligent people thinking about related questions, can make a large contribution to the expected value from my perspective. Now of course uFAI has a strongly negative utility, but we have to set that against the chance of humanity dying without any form of AI. The latter seems close to 1 in the long term (while post-FAI humanity has a greater chance of finding a way around entropy.) Even on more human timescales, it seems disturbingly large. This combined with the downsides of all your suggestions goes a long way towards removing the paradox.
I also assume the SIAI and people who agree with their take have a real chance of persuading the people who’d otherwise have the greatest chance of making an uFAI. You may disagree with this, of course, but if we can’t at least persuade a large fraction of the public then most of your suggestions seem pointless. Now if we persuaded the majority, but some group kept working on a new and dangerous-looking project, we’d have to consider what action to take. But violence still wouldn’t be my first or second choice.