By “cutoff value,” I mean the likelihood of a project’s resulting in FAI that makes it utility-maximizing to support the project. If UFAI has −1000 utility, and FAI has 1000 utility, you should only support a project more likely to produce FAI than UFAI. If UFAI has −4000 utility and FAI only has 1000, then a project with a 51% chance of being friendly is a bad bet, and you should only support one with a > 80% chance of success.
By “cutoff value,” I mean the likelihood of a project’s resulting in FAI that makes it utility-maximizing to support the project. If UFAI has −1000 utility, and FAI has 1000 utility, you should only support a project more likely to produce FAI than UFAI. If UFAI has −4000 utility and FAI only has 1000, then a project with a 51% chance of being friendly is a bad bet, and you should only support one with a > 80% chance of success.