Also, the number of attempts at once doesn’t change the odds of the first one being Friendly, if all the attempts are the same quality.
First, the odds of the first one being Friendly are not especially important unless you assume FOOM is the only possible case.
Second, the number of attempts does change the odds of the first one being Friendly, unless you believe that hurried projects are as likely to be Friendly as slow, cautious projects.
My intuition is that the really high expected utility of a positive FOOM and the really low expected utility of a bad one make Friendliness important if it gets even a fairly low probability. But it’s true that if all the AIs developed within, say 5 years of the first one get a substantial influence then the situation changes.
First, the odds of the first one being Friendly are not especially important unless you assume FOOM is the only possible case.
Second, the number of attempts does change the odds of the first one being Friendly, unless you believe that hurried projects are as likely to be Friendly as slow, cautious projects.
My intuition is that the really high expected utility of a positive FOOM and the really low expected utility of a bad one make Friendliness important if it gets even a fairly low probability. But it’s true that if all the AIs developed within, say 5 years of the first one get a substantial influence then the situation changes.