Your argument compares each project to the possibility ‘no AI built’. I think it would be better to compare each of them to the possibility ‘one of the other projects builds an AI’ which means you should make your cut-off point the average project (or a weighted average with weights based on probability of being first).
Your argument compares each project to the possibility ‘no AI built’. I think it would be better to compare each of them to the possibility ‘one of the other projects builds an AI’ which means you should make your cut-off point the average project (or a weighted average with weights based on probability of being first).
That’s a good point and makes my last two comments kind of moot. Is that why the grandparent was voted down?