So far I have all open bets with fixed dates imported, and roughly a third of the predictions.
It would be nice if a bunch of LWers could go in and put down their own probabilities. It’s true that most of them don’t come due any time soon—looking at upcoming predictions I see the first Long Bet item coming up in 5 months, followed by 2 or 3 within half a year after that. But the more who use it, the more short-term predictions and the more useful. The rich get richer, etc.
Wrong Tomorrow turns out to be something like half or more expired predictions which haven’t been judged (and only the moderators/admins can do that, so...). Imported the outstanding predictions faster than I expected, so that’s done.
Next is Intrade and our 2010 predictions, unless anyone has other suggestions.
I have spent some time extracting bets and predictions from Long Bets under my account.
So far I have all open bets with fixed dates imported, and roughly a third of the predictions.
It would be nice if a bunch of LWers could go in and put down their own probabilities. It’s true that most of them don’t come due any time soon—looking at upcoming predictions I see the first Long Bet item coming up in 5 months, followed by 2 or 3 within half a year after that. But the more who use it, the more short-term predictions and the more useful. The rich get richer, etc.
I’ve finished importing all the sensible bets and predictions from LB. I suppose the next target is Wrong Tomorrow, and then I’ll turn to Intrade.
(I see next to no contributions from LWers. This disappoints me; do we all think we are well-calibrated or what?)
Wrong Tomorrow turns out to be something like half or more expired predictions which haven’t been judged (and only the moderators/admins can do that, so...). Imported the outstanding predictions faster than I expected, so that’s done.
Next is Intrade and our 2010 predictions, unless anyone has other suggestions.