Strong evidence is evidence that, given certain premises, has no chance of arising.
Of course, Eliezer has also claimed that nothing can have no chance of arising (probability zero), so it’s easy to see how one might be confused about his position.
Traditionally, evidence that has less than a particular value of arising given the truth of a hypothesis (usually 5%) is considered to be strong, but that’s really an arbitrary decision.
Traditionally, evidence that has less than a particular value of arising given the truth of a hypothesis (usually 5%) is considered to be strong, but that’s really an arbitrary decision.
Correction: traditionally evidence against an hypothesis is considered strong if the chance of that evidence or any more extreme evidence arising given the truth of the hypothesis is less than an arbitrary value. (If this tradition doesn’t make sense to you, you are not alone.)
Strong evidence is evidence that, given certain premises, has no chance of arising.
Of course, Eliezer has also claimed that nothing can have no chance of arising (probability zero), so it’s easy to see how one might be confused about his position.
Traditionally, evidence that has less than a particular value of arising given the truth of a hypothesis (usually 5%) is considered to be strong, but that’s really an arbitrary decision.
Correction: traditionally evidence against an hypothesis is considered strong if the chance of that evidence or any more extreme evidence arising given the truth of the hypothesis is less than an arbitrary value. (If this tradition doesn’t make sense to you, you are not alone.)