I agree that it is very difficult to make predictions about something that is A) Probably a long way away (Where “long” here is more than a few years) and B) Is likely to change things a great deal no matter what happens.
I think the correct solution to this problem of uncertainty is to reason normally about it but have very wide confidence intervals, rather than anchoring on 50% because X will happen or it won’t.
I agree that it is very difficult to make predictions about something that is A) Probably a long way away (Where “long” here is more than a few years) and B) Is likely to change things a great deal no matter what happens.
I think the correct solution to this problem of uncertainty is to reason normally about it but have very wide confidence intervals, rather than anchoring on 50% because X will happen or it won’t.