Thank you for the offer. I think your offer is reasonable. The problem is that $10 is too low a price for “something I have to remember for a year”. In theory, this could be fixed by increasing the wager amount, but $100k is above my risk limit for a bet (even something as simple as “the sun will rise tomorrow”).
I think we’ve both established a market spread…which is kind of the point of this exercise. You get skin-in-the-game points for maxing out the market’s available liquidity at a 0.1% price point.
There’s a few other details I though of since my last comment (“mirror life” doesn’t count, “shadow biosphere” don’t count, and that I can exit the bet pre-resolution by paying repaying your initial payment pro-rated if I experience financial hardship (but not in response to evidence in your favor), and the condition that repayment depends solely on my honor and is not legally-enforcible[1]), but I don’t think they’re central to the problem of $10 is too high a price for one year of friction, even on a near-certain outcome.
The reason for this comes from the asymmetry of $10 vs $10k. It results in bad incentives. This condition would not be necessary if the numbers were closer (say, $3k vs $7k).
Thank you for the offer. I think your offer is reasonable. The problem is that $10 is too low a price for “something I have to remember for a year”. In theory, this could be fixed by increasing the wager amount, but $100k is above my risk limit for a bet (even something as simple as “the sun will rise tomorrow”).
I think we’ve both established a market spread…which is kind of the point of this exercise. You get skin-in-the-game points for maxing out the market’s available liquidity at a 0.1% price point.
There’s a few other details I though of since my last comment (“mirror life” doesn’t count, “shadow biosphere” don’t count, and that I can exit the bet pre-resolution by paying repaying your initial payment pro-rated if I experience financial hardship (but not in response to evidence in your favor), and the condition that repayment depends solely on my honor and is not legally-enforcible[1]), but I don’t think they’re central to the problem of $10 is too high a price for one year of friction, even on a near-certain outcome.
The reason for this comes from the asymmetry of $10 vs $10k. It results in bad incentives. This condition would not be necessary if the numbers were closer (say, $3k vs $7k).