Willing to bet on this at 200:1? (This is what I have been offering others)
My Offer:
I Send you $X Immediately, You pay out $200*X if I win
I want a 5 year time horizon.
I am betting that one of the “very weird” hypotheses turns out true. Bet resolves in my favor if within 5 years its determined that >0 UAP are explained by:
Literal aliens
Magic/spiritual/paranormal/psychic phenomenon
Time travel
Leftovers of an ancient civilization / Some other unknown non-human advanced civilization on earth
Some other explanation that’s of this level of “very weird”
Explicitly excluding merely hyper-advanced human tech
I forfeit any and all potential “gotcha” cases.
Determination of resolution to be up to you.
I reserve the right to appeal to the LW community. [I will not abuse this right]
Please let me know what your maximum payout you swear to be good for would be, and Ill send you 1/200th that today, up to a maximum of 5K.
If these terms are acceptable, please provide a means for me to pay you. I would prefer a crypto address, but will make whatever work. Upon payment please post an acknowledgement of payment.
I offer the same terms to anyone else [with a nontrivial post history].
Thanks! This is fairly tempting. I’m a bit concerned by
Some other explanation that’s of this level of “very weird”
To be clear, if it were just the 4 hypotheses you mention, then I feel pretty good about this, and I’d just want to reflect over 200:1 versus 100:1.
For instance, if some form of undiscovered bat or sea creature is actually good at flying and that explains the images, does that count as “very weird”? That is, it’s not an animal that can design technologies, but it is the cause of a bunch of the UFO reportings.
Also “psychic phenomenon” seems kind of ill-defined. Derren Brown can do hypnosis and seances that have strong effects on people, there’s a lot of suggestibility in people, if a bunch of UFO sighting were due to someone doing similar things but even better and naturally, does that count as psychic phenomena?
For the laws of physics, if we discover a new theory of physics, and the UFOs were directly responsible for figuring it out, then I’m happy to credit that as responsible. Time travel would certainly count.
Regarding the hypotheses, I’d probably want to determine now some set of LW posters to resolve it if we disagree. My first guess is that Oliver Habryka, Alyssa Vance, and Vaniver could be good, where if any of them think the bet resolves in your favor then it does.
For instance, if some form of undiscovered bat or sea creature is actually good at flying and that explains the images, does that count as “very weird”? That is, it’s not an animal that can design technologies, but it is the cause of a bunch of the UFO reportings.
If a skeptic/debunker would feel smug and vindicated about any given explanation, then that explanation would NOT resolve in my favor. Weird animal (As mentioned, barring that they aren’t secretly on par with humans), is prosaic and would NOT resolve in my favor.
Also “psychic phenomenon” seems kind of ill-defined. Derren Brown can do hypnosis and seances that have strong effects on people, there’s a lot of suggestibility in people, if a bunch of UFO sighting were due to someone doing similar things but even better and naturally, does that count as psychic phenomena?
Merely advanced “mentalist” type stuff would NOT count. This class is more pointing at “true” psychic phenomena. ie, something more like ESP, remote viewing, astral projection, etc.
Regarding the hypotheses, I’d probably want to determine now some set of LW posters to resolve it if we disagree. My first guess is that Oliver Habryka, Alyssa Vance, and Vaniver could be good, where if any of them think the bet resolves in your favor then it does.
I lurk, but not closely enough to know what handles would be good for this bet. Ill accept this list, and also throw in Scott Alexander and Eliezer.
Willing to bet on this at 200:1? (This is what I have been offering others)
My Offer:
I Send you $X Immediately, You pay out $200*X if I win
I want a 5 year time horizon.
I am betting that one of the “very weird” hypotheses turns out true. Bet resolves in my favor if within 5 years its determined that >0 UAP are explained by:
Literal aliens
Magic/spiritual/paranormal/psychic phenomenon
Time travel
Leftovers of an ancient civilization / Some other unknown non-human advanced civilization on earth
Some other explanation that’s of this level of “very weird”
Explicitly excluding merely hyper-advanced human tech
I forfeit any and all potential “gotcha” cases.
Determination of resolution to be up to you.
I reserve the right to appeal to the LW community. [I will not abuse this right]
Please let me know what your maximum payout you swear to be good for would be, and Ill send you 1/200th that today, up to a maximum of 5K.
If these terms are acceptable, please provide a means for me to pay you. I would prefer a crypto address, but will make whatever work. Upon payment please post an acknowledgement of payment.
I offer the same terms to anyone else [with a nontrivial post history].
Thanks! This is fairly tempting. I’m a bit concerned by
To be clear, if it were just the 4 hypotheses you mention, then I feel pretty good about this, and I’d just want to reflect over 200:1 versus 100:1.
For instance, if some form of undiscovered bat or sea creature is actually good at flying and that explains the images, does that count as “very weird”? That is, it’s not an animal that can design technologies, but it is the cause of a bunch of the UFO reportings.
Also “psychic phenomenon” seems kind of ill-defined. Derren Brown can do hypnosis and seances that have strong effects on people, there’s a lot of suggestibility in people, if a bunch of UFO sighting were due to someone doing similar things but even better and naturally, does that count as psychic phenomena?
For the laws of physics, if we discover a new theory of physics, and the UFOs were directly responsible for figuring it out, then I’m happy to credit that as responsible. Time travel would certainly count.
Regarding the hypotheses, I’d probably want to determine now some set of LW posters to resolve it if we disagree. My first guess is that Oliver Habryka, Alyssa Vance, and Vaniver could be good, where if any of them think the bet resolves in your favor then it does.
I have created a post for this bet https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t5W87hQF5gKyTofQB/ufo-betting-put-up-or-shut-up
If a skeptic/debunker would feel smug and vindicated about any given explanation, then that explanation would NOT resolve in my favor. Weird animal (As mentioned, barring that they aren’t secretly on par with humans), is prosaic and would NOT resolve in my favor.
Merely advanced “mentalist” type stuff would NOT count. This class is more pointing at “true” psychic phenomena. ie, something more like ESP, remote viewing, astral projection, etc.
I lurk, but not closely enough to know what handles would be good for this bet. Ill accept this list, and also throw in Scott Alexander and Eliezer.