I actually do not think I agree with this. I believe people confuse “the chances are close to zero” with “the chances are zero.” For this post, I also tried to choose examples that are genuinely negative expected value: where if you continue doubling down on those choices your life will likely start to fall apart.
In the dating example, I see your perspective. In the university group example, I think that this is really only the kind of choice one would make if they have taken “I can just do things” and “be agentic” to the extreme. This kind of mistake seems to be entirely avoidable with a more measured world-veiw.
I actually do not think I agree with this. I believe people confuse “the chances are close to zero” with “the chances are zero.” For this post, I also tried to choose examples that are genuinely negative expected value: where if you continue doubling down on those choices your life will likely start to fall apart.
In the dating example, I see your perspective. In the university group example, I think that this is really only the kind of choice one would make if they have taken “I can just do things” and “be agentic” to the extreme. This kind of mistake seems to be entirely avoidable with a more measured world-veiw.