Ok, I went and looked at the survey (instead of just going based on memories of an 80k podcast that Ajeya was on where she stressed the existence of framing effects), and it is indeed very narrow, and looking at the effect of framing effects, I’m now less/not confident this is convincing to anyone who needs to be convinced that experts aren’t really using a model, but I still think that most likely don’t have a model, because people in general don’t usually have a model.
Ok, I went and looked at the survey (instead of just going based on memories of an 80k podcast that Ajeya was on where she stressed the existence of framing effects), and it is indeed very narrow, and looking at the effect of framing effects, I’m now less/not confident this is convincing to anyone who needs to be convinced that experts aren’t really using a model, but I still think that most likely don’t have a model, because people in general don’t usually have a model.