And I think you’re admitting that your argument is “if we mush all capabilities together into one dimension, AI is moving up on that one dimension, so things will keep going up”.
Would you say the same thing about the invention of search engines? That was a huge jump in the capability of our computers. And it looks even more impressive if you blur out your vision—pretend you don’t know that the text that comes up on your screen is written by a humna, and pretend you don’t know that search is a specific kind of task distinct from a lot of other activity that would be involved in “True Understanding, woooo”—and just say “wow! previously our computers couldn’t write a poem, but now with just a few keystrokes my computer can literally produce Billy Collins level poetry!”.
Blurring things together at that level works for, like, macroeconomic trends. But if you look at macroeconomic trends it doesn’t say singularity in 2 years! Going to 2 or 10 years is an inside-view thing to conclude! You’re making some inference like “there’s an engine that is very likely operating here, that takes us to AGI in xyz years”.
I’m not saying that. You are the one who introduced the concept of “the core algorithms for intelligence;” you should explain what that means and why it’s a binary (or if it’s not a binary but rather a dimension, why we haven’t been moving along that dimension in recent past.
ETA: I do have an ontology, a way of thinking about these things, that is more sophisticated than simply mushing all capabilities together into one dimension. I just don’t accept your ontology yet.
The burden is on you because you’re saying “we have gone from not having the core algorithms for intelligence in our computers, to yes having them”.
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sTDfraZab47KiRMmT/views-on-when-agi-comes-and-on-strategy-to-reduce#The__no_blockers__intuition
And I think you’re admitting that your argument is “if we mush all capabilities together into one dimension, AI is moving up on that one dimension, so things will keep going up”.
Would you say the same thing about the invention of search engines? That was a huge jump in the capability of our computers. And it looks even more impressive if you blur out your vision—pretend you don’t know that the text that comes up on your screen is written by a humna, and pretend you don’t know that search is a specific kind of task distinct from a lot of other activity that would be involved in “True Understanding, woooo”—and just say “wow! previously our computers couldn’t write a poem, but now with just a few keystrokes my computer can literally produce Billy Collins level poetry!”.
Blurring things together at that level works for, like, macroeconomic trends. But if you look at macroeconomic trends it doesn’t say singularity in 2 years! Going to 2 or 10 years is an inside-view thing to conclude! You’re making some inference like “there’s an engine that is very likely operating here, that takes us to AGI in xyz years”.
I’m not saying that. You are the one who introduced the concept of “the core algorithms for intelligence;” you should explain what that means and why it’s a binary (or if it’s not a binary but rather a dimension, why we haven’t been moving along that dimension in recent past.
ETA: I do have an ontology, a way of thinking about these things, that is more sophisticated than simply mushing all capabilities together into one dimension. I just don’t accept your ontology yet.