I see. This seems like a fairly poor approach to estimation, though. It doesn’t actually matter how many potential soccer (or football) players there are, when it comes to calculating risk, except insofar as it helps us estimate how many actual soccer (or football) players there are. But we can just get those numbers directly:
24,472,778
Number of people who play soccer at some level in the U.S. — second only to China. (Source: FIFA World Football Big Count)
3,055,148
Youth players officially registered with U.S. Soccer programs in 2014 — up by 89 percent since 1990, the first year the U.S. qualified for the World Cup final round since 1950.
The largest category of soccer in the United States in terms of participation is boys’ and girls’ youth soccer. Soccer is one of the most played sports by children in the United States. In 2012, soccer was the #4 most played team sport by high school boys, and soccer overtook softball to become the #3 most played team sport by high school girls.[117] As of 2006, the U.S. was the #1 country in the world for participation in youth soccer, with 3.9 million American youths (2.3 million boys and 1.6 million girls) registered with U.S. Soccer.[118] Among girls, the U.S. has more registered players than all other countries combined.[119] The number of high school soccer players more than doubled from 1990 to 2010, giving soccer the fastest growth rate among all major U.S. sports.[120]
Even leaving aside the 1,531 girls who played high school football in the 2012-2013 school year, the 1,086,627 high school boys who played football exceeded the number of boys and girls combined who participated in any other sport.
Here are the Top Ten high school sports by the number of students who participated in them in the 2012-2013 school year:
Football, 1,088,158 (1,086,627 boys; 1,531 girls)
…
Soccer, 782,514 (410,982 boys; 371,532 girls)
…
In 2012-2013, a record 7,713,577 students participated in a high school sports, up from 7,692,520 in 2011-2012.
A total of 1.23 million youth ages 6-12 played tackle football in 2015, up from 1.216 million the year before, according to data from the Sports & Fitness Industry Association, which commissions an annual survey of participation rates in United States households across a range of sports.
A record 4.3 million children were born in the U.S. in 2007 -- they are now around age 8, when communities begin to offer tackle football. As a share of the age 6-12 population, the total participation rate remained the same as the past year, 4.2 percent.
Across the board, in the 6-12 and 13-17 age groups, participation in football on a regular and casual basis is down since 2009, before the risks of youth playing the game began to grow, partly due to research findings and a number of former NFL players saying they would keep their kids from football or delay their entry into tackle until adolescence.
In 2009, 3.96 million youth ages 6-17 played tackle football. Last year, that number fell to 3.21 million, down from 3.25 million in 2014.
Putting the numbers into a more common format for comparing risks via back of the envelope, this means football players get head injuries of about 20 per 1000, and soccer players about 10 per 1000, making a season of football only twice as dangerous. That is surprising to me.
Moving that one to the bottom of the list for my daughter, I suppose.
I see. This seems like a fairly poor approach to estimation, though. It doesn’t actually matter how many potential soccer (or football) players there are, when it comes to calculating risk, except insofar as it helps us estimate how many actual soccer (or football) players there are. But we can just get those numbers directly:
(From NBCNews.com)
(From Wikipedia)
(From cnsnews.com)
(From ESPN.com)
The numbers aren’t clear-cut, but from what I can see, your prediction does not seem to be borne out.
Oops! It appears you are right.
Putting the numbers into a more common format for comparing risks via back of the envelope, this means football players get head injuries of about 20 per 1000, and soccer players about 10 per 1000, making a season of football only twice as dangerous. That is surprising to me.
Moving that one to the bottom of the list for my daughter, I suppose.