I know this is off-topic, but I want to bring up a point, and I don’t want to wait around for the next Open Thread.
Ever since I read about prediction markets on this blog, and I read The Wisdom of Crowds, I became interested in both. And I watched Intrade.
I’ve especially watched Intrade over the last month. But what I came to realize is that Intrade doesn’t know anything that any of us, individually, would not know.
A month ago, Obama was leading in the polls, and predictably, he was leading on Intrade. Then McCain got the “Palin bounce”, he led in the polls, and he led (just last Tuesday) on Intrade. The new polls came in, Obama led, and once again Obama is up on Intrade.
Remember about a year ago when Hillary Clinton shot up to ~70% on Intrade and Robin asked “what does Intrade know that we don’t know?” Apparently nothing, because she lost.
I’m not saying that prediction markets or the wisdom of crowds are wrong. I’m just saying that Intrade is not large enough, or something is wrong with it, to the extent that it has repeatedly demonstrated itself not to have any more information than the rest of us have.
So. Who’s going to win? I can look at the latest polls and that’s just as informative as Intrade has been over the last year (other than it’s erroneous bubbles). So much for that.
I know this is off-topic, but I want to bring up a point, and I don’t want to wait around for the next Open Thread.
Ever since I read about prediction markets on this blog, and I read The Wisdom of Crowds, I became interested in both. And I watched Intrade.
I’ve especially watched Intrade over the last month. But what I came to realize is that Intrade doesn’t know anything that any of us, individually, would not know.
A month ago, Obama was leading in the polls, and predictably, he was leading on Intrade. Then McCain got the “Palin bounce”, he led in the polls, and he led (just last Tuesday) on Intrade. The new polls came in, Obama led, and once again Obama is up on Intrade.
Remember about a year ago when Hillary Clinton shot up to ~70% on Intrade and Robin asked “what does Intrade know that we don’t know?” Apparently nothing, because she lost.
I’m not saying that prediction markets or the wisdom of crowds are wrong. I’m just saying that Intrade is not large enough, or something is wrong with it, to the extent that it has repeatedly demonstrated itself not to have any more information than the rest of us have.
So. Who’s going to win? I can look at the latest polls and that’s just as informative as Intrade has been over the last year (other than it’s erroneous bubbles). So much for that.