The reason why I’m concerned about this scenario is because this would be the worst possible outcome for anyone, in my opinion. The other possibilities wouldn’t cause as much suffering.
Probabilities and frequencies are a related concept. Question “is it better if X happens to 1 person, or Y happens to 5 people” should have a similar answer to question “is it better if X happens (to 1 person) with probability 10%, or Y happens (to 1 person) with probability 50%”. If you imagine hypothetical futures, it’s kinda the same thing; 10% probability means in happens in 1 of 10 hypothetical futures; probability 50% means is happens in 5 of 10.
If you want to prevent some hypothetical outcome, it usually comes with a cost. (It always comes with a cost, if we include your time spent thinking about the scenario.) Therefore my analogy with the insurance agents—they typically want to focus your entire attention towards “what will be the consequences of X, if I am not insured”… and away from “what will be the consequences of paying for insurance, if X does not happen”. To make a good decision, you need to consider both scenarios, and their relative probability. Not being insured can ruin your life if an unexpected event happens, but being insured too much also decreases your quality of life by taking away a part of your income; sometimes the latter cost (multiplied by probability) outweighs the former (multiplied by probability), and then not getting insured is the right choice.
Thinking about hypothetical futures and taking action to avoid them, that is analogical to insurance. You spend some resources (including the time you spent thinking) now, in order to mitigate a possible problem in the future. The same equation applies; if the probability of the outcome is too small, it is not worth worrying about it. The time you spend worrying about the unlikely things is taken from the same budget you have for solving problems that are actually quite likely to happen.
Thanks for your response.
The reason why I’m concerned about this scenario is because this would be the worst possible outcome for anyone, in my opinion. The other possibilities wouldn’t cause as much suffering.
You might be interested in this article.
The general idea is that the probability of outcome should be a part of the equation. Otherwise, insurance agents will love you as a customer.
Thanks for sharing the article.
I didn’t read anything about the probability of outcome—are you referring to a comment?
Probabilities and frequencies are a related concept. Question “is it better if X happens to 1 person, or Y happens to 5 people” should have a similar answer to question “is it better if X happens (to 1 person) with probability 10%, or Y happens (to 1 person) with probability 50%”. If you imagine hypothetical futures, it’s kinda the same thing; 10% probability means in happens in 1 of 10 hypothetical futures; probability 50% means is happens in 5 of 10.
If you want to prevent some hypothetical outcome, it usually comes with a cost. (It always comes with a cost, if we include your time spent thinking about the scenario.) Therefore my analogy with the insurance agents—they typically want to focus your entire attention towards “what will be the consequences of X, if I am not insured”… and away from “what will be the consequences of paying for insurance, if X does not happen”. To make a good decision, you need to consider both scenarios, and their relative probability. Not being insured can ruin your life if an unexpected event happens, but being insured too much also decreases your quality of life by taking away a part of your income; sometimes the latter cost (multiplied by probability) outweighs the former (multiplied by probability), and then not getting insured is the right choice.
Thinking about hypothetical futures and taking action to avoid them, that is analogical to insurance. You spend some resources (including the time you spent thinking) now, in order to mitigate a possible problem in the future. The same equation applies; if the probability of the outcome is too small, it is not worth worrying about it. The time you spend worrying about the unlikely things is taken from the same budget you have for solving problems that are actually quite likely to happen.