One day I hope to not even have to persuade myself, but meanwhile I notice my prediction was correct and feel just a little bit pleased with myself.
Could use the same reasoning when predicting you won’t be having a car accident, then being pleased not having bothered with your seatbelt.
When you’re unsure if an event is rare or really rare, noticing that an event did not occur in a few specific situations won’t much differentiate rare from really rare, since it’s the expected result in both cases.
Could use the same reasoning when predicting you won’t be having a car accident, then being pleased not having bothered with your seatbelt.
When you’re unsure if an event is rare or really rare, noticing that an event did not occur in a few specific situations won’t much differentiate rare from really rare, since it’s the expected result in both cases.
“Rare” might well be enough for purplerabbits to feel happy leaving it there.
The inconvenience of wearing a seatbelt is much less than the inconvenience of carrying lots of luggage to a toilet and back.
And the potential cost is much higher (even if the odds are somewhat lower).