The way I would approach this is with math, because humans are bad at probabilities.
What are the odds of your stuff getting taken? One in a hundred would still be compatible with ‘nothing happened the last hundred times’, and one in a hundred is probably a reasonable estimate. Let’s go with one in five hundred, since you’re feeling lucky.
You have two thousand pounds of stuff in your bag, which would disappear if someone took it. Simply multiply to get the expected loss: 0.002*2000 = four pounds. You trip to the loo cost you four pounds. (If the odds are actually closer to one in a hundred, your trip cost you twenty pounds instead.)
If you’re ok with paying four pounds to go to the loo bag-free, then hey, victory is yours.
But remember that you are playing a lottery here, and that it’s a net monetary loss in the long run. If your time/effort tradeoff is worth the money then so be it, but make that decision consciously and based on data. Do not try to ‘gut feel’ your way around probabilities of less than one in fifty.
Or more costly if you factor in the aggravation of dealing with the insurance company. For those that havn’t done it before...well, it’s not pleasant unless you know exactly what you are doing. Or have a lawyer handle it, which can be its own brand of pain.
The last time I dealt with an insurance company it wasn’t all that painful (maybe 2-3 hours work). Depending on how the OP values her time of course I suspect the cost would still be quite a lot lower than £2000.
Yes, I would expect 2-3 hours work dealing with it plus a loss of utility for the holiday of around £200. If I cost my time at a tenner an hour that works out at under 50p for a luggage free bathroom break, which sounds pretty reasonable to me.
The cost would be measured primarily in emotional damage done by police and insurance investigators blaming the victim for leaving the goods unattended.
Then it seems the general advice prooffered should be “trust people more, but make sure you insure your expensive items and don’t tell the insurers that you leave them alone in a crowded public place.”
The way I would approach this is with math, because humans are bad at probabilities.
What are the odds of your stuff getting taken? One in a hundred would still be compatible with ‘nothing happened the last hundred times’, and one in a hundred is probably a reasonable estimate. Let’s go with one in five hundred, since you’re feeling lucky.
You have two thousand pounds of stuff in your bag, which would disappear if someone took it. Simply multiply to get the expected loss: 0.002*2000 = four pounds. You trip to the loo cost you four pounds. (If the odds are actually closer to one in a hundred, your trip cost you twenty pounds instead.)
If you’re ok with paying four pounds to go to the loo bag-free, then hey, victory is yours.
But remember that you are playing a lottery here, and that it’s a net monetary loss in the long run. If your time/effort tradeoff is worth the money then so be it, but make that decision consciously and based on data. Do not try to ‘gut feel’ your way around probabilities of less than one in fifty.
The OP says that she’s insured, so theft of the items would be significantly less costly than £2000.
Or more costly if you factor in the aggravation of dealing with the insurance company. For those that havn’t done it before...well, it’s not pleasant unless you know exactly what you are doing. Or have a lawyer handle it, which can be its own brand of pain.
Presumably if that was the case, she wouldn’t have bought insurance...
The last time I dealt with an insurance company it wasn’t all that painful (maybe 2-3 hours work). Depending on how the OP values her time of course I suspect the cost would still be quite a lot lower than £2000.
Yes, I would expect 2-3 hours work dealing with it plus a loss of utility for the holiday of around £200. If I cost my time at a tenner an hour that works out at under 50p for a luggage free bathroom break, which sounds pretty reasonable to me.
The cost would be measured primarily in emotional damage done by police and insurance investigators blaming the victim for leaving the goods unattended.
Then it seems the general advice prooffered should be “trust people more, but make sure you insure your expensive items and don’t tell the insurers that you leave them alone in a crowded public place.”