I realized we are in the weeds. Since we both agree that states will be humbled, not destroyed, we should not see survivorship bias shape what sorts of states remain.
I also realized something else. In my mind, if acting rationally the strategic framework for the government confronting protestors is coextensive with the dynamics of political violence and occupation. The governments strategy options, goals, and constraints are basically the same, and so they should be taking many of the same sorts of actions, and they are basically continuums of the same thing. The fact that protestors often settle for small concessions is a reflection of their real strategic situation, and is a success for the protestors (they get their object), and sometimes also the government (they still exist)
I realized we are in the weeds. Since we both agree that states will be humbled, not destroyed, we should not see survivorship bias shape what sorts of states remain.
I also realized something else. In my mind, if acting rationally the strategic framework for the government confronting protestors is coextensive with the dynamics of political violence and occupation. The governments strategy options, goals, and constraints are basically the same, and so they should be taking many of the same sorts of actions, and they are basically continuums of the same thing. The fact that protestors often settle for small concessions is a reflection of their real strategic situation, and is a success for the protestors (they get their object), and sometimes also the government (they still exist)