The other thought is if we expect states to care mostly about resource goals, we should expect them to find diplomatic solutions, (in which case democracies credible commitment mechanisms matter). I am very convinced by the crisis bargaining perspective, in which rational states should be expected to find settlements short of war. We see the largest wars over ideological factors, under this model, because they disrupt this bargaining model in various ways. If you just want access to some resource, especially if the defender can destroy it, it very rarely makes sense to go to war for it (since you can almost always simply threaten too, then get what you want at the bargaining table). So we should find resource based goals, even with opportunism, don’t lead to war.
The other thought is if we expect states to care mostly about resource goals, we should expect them to find diplomatic solutions, (in which case democracies credible commitment mechanisms matter). I am very convinced by the crisis bargaining perspective, in which rational states should be expected to find settlements short of war. We see the largest wars over ideological factors, under this model, because they disrupt this bargaining model in various ways. If you just want access to some resource, especially if the defender can destroy it, it very rarely makes sense to go to war for it (since you can almost always simply threaten too, then get what you want at the bargaining table). So we should find resource based goals, even with opportunism, don’t lead to war.