I think it’s still monitorable if a) people are competent and b) these are real and representative numbers rather than sandbagged ones (or easily tuned-away ones). But both assumptions are dubious (especially a),
Like if the AI companies are moderately competent, 15m-60m is not enough to do real long-term planning, evade actually good monitors, plan out ambitious research projects, self-exfiltrate, etc. As it is I think it’s unclear.
But perhaps more importantly the trends are extremely concerning. Increasing the no-CoT time horizon + generally better long-term planning + plus scarier lower-level capabilities might soon mean that oversight is effectively impossible, even with competent safeguards.
I think it’s still monitorable if a) people are competent and b) these are real and representative numbers rather than sandbagged ones (or easily tuned-away ones). But both assumptions are dubious (especially a),
Like if the AI companies are moderately competent, 15m-60m is not enough to do real long-term planning, evade actually good monitors, plan out ambitious research projects, self-exfiltrate, etc. As it is I think it’s unclear.
But perhaps more importantly the trends are extremely concerning. Increasing the no-CoT time horizon + generally better long-term planning + plus scarier lower-level capabilities might soon mean that oversight is effectively impossible, even with competent safeguards.