The counterfactual mugging requires that the deal be offered by an entity that is known to be both perfectly honest and a perfect predictor. If Omega tries to counterfactually mug you, you should pay him. If I try to counterfactually mug you, paying up would be significantly less wise.
A sufficiently good decision theory should get both of those cases right.
The counterfactual mugging requires that the deal be offered by an entity that is known to be both perfectly honest and a perfect predictor. If Omega tries to counterfactually mug you, you should pay him. If I try to counterfactually mug you, paying up would be significantly less wise.
A sufficiently good decision theory should get both of those cases right.
No.
The entity doesn’t have to be perfect.