If the world does end, does buying that 2nd house really get you all that much utility?
Conversely what about the range of somewhat positive scenarios. The world doesn’t end, but general robotic AI works. You can simply write a file for the instructions for a robot and it can go do a task and it is much more likely to succeed than a typical human is.
Only the land under that 2nd house has any long term value in that scenario. The structure can be swapped like we swap flatscreen TVs today. (not that far fetched, in prior eras TVs were much more expensive and actually a significant investment)
And implicitly the reason we are all supposed to horde away huge piles of wealth for retirement is because:
1. medical care is delivered by humans and is mostly ineffective but when you are elderly it can burn away millions on marginally effective treatments to add a few extra weeks before you’re dead
2. prices for basic necessities could theoretically increase a lot and you need that huge pile of assets to pay for them
3. you have plans for all the activities you are going to do when elderly that you probably won’t actually do
Even somewhat positive AI scenarios where the world hasn’t ended but it is capable and commonplace may break all 3 assumptions. It definitely breaks #2, it might break #1. AI developed therapies for aging might break #3 though arguably if you weren’t appearing elderly and suffering from all the symptoms of untreated aging you could return to work.
If the world does end, does buying that 2nd house really get you all that much utility?
Conversely what about the range of somewhat positive scenarios. The world doesn’t end, but general robotic AI works. You can simply write a file for the instructions for a robot and it can go do a task and it is much more likely to succeed than a typical human is.
Only the land under that 2nd house has any long term value in that scenario. The structure can be swapped like we swap flatscreen TVs today. (not that far fetched, in prior eras TVs were much more expensive and actually a significant investment)
And implicitly the reason we are all supposed to horde away huge piles of wealth for retirement is because:
1. medical care is delivered by humans and is mostly ineffective but when you are elderly it can burn away millions on marginally effective treatments to add a few extra weeks before you’re dead
2. prices for basic necessities could theoretically increase a lot and you need that huge pile of assets to pay for them
3. you have plans for all the activities you are going to do when elderly that you probably won’t actually do
Even somewhat positive AI scenarios where the world hasn’t ended but it is capable and commonplace may break all 3 assumptions. It definitely breaks #2, it might break #1. AI developed therapies for aging might break #3 though arguably if you weren’t appearing elderly and suffering from all the symptoms of untreated aging you could return to work.