Argh! Original post didn’t go through (probably my fault), so this will be shorter than it should be:
First point:
I know very little about CEA, and a brief check of their website leaves me a little unclear on why Luke recommends them, aside from the fact that they apparently work closely with FHI.
CEA = Giving What We Can, 80,000 Hours, and a bit of other stuff
Reason → donations to CEA predictably increase the size and strength of the EA community, a good proportion of whom take long-run considerations very seriously and will donate to / work for FHI/MIRI, or otherwise pursue careers with the aim of extinction risk mitigation. It’s plausible that $1 to CEA generates significantly more than $1′s worth of x-risk-value [note: I’m a trustee and founder of CEA].
Second point:
Don’t forget CSER. My view is that they are even higher-impact than MIRI or FHI (though I’d defer to Sean_o_h if he disagreed). Reason: marginal donations will be used to fund program management + grantwriting, which would turn ~$70k into a significant chance of ~$1-$10mn, and launch what I think might become one of the most important research institutions in the world. They have all the background (high profile people on the board; an already written previous grant proposal that very narrowly missed out on being successful). High leverage!
On point 1:
I can confirm that members of CEA have done quite a lot of awareness-spreading about existential risks and long-run considerations, as well as bringing FHI, MIRI and other organisations to the attention of potential donors who have concerns in this area. I generally agree with Will’s point, and I think it’s very plausible that CEA’s work will result in more philanthropic funding coming FHI’s way in the future.
On point 2:
I also agree. I need to have some discussion with the founders to confirm some points on strategy going forward as soon as the Christmas period’s over, but it’s likely that additional funds could play a big role in CSER’s progress in gaining larger funding streams. I’ll be posting on this shortly.
I should clarify that when I said “I think it’s hard to tell whether donations do more good at MIRI, FHI, CEA, or CFAR,” I didn’t mean that to be an exhaustive list. CSER could also be on the list, precisely because it’s not just some random organization talking about how they want to reduce x-risk, but in fact is tightly connected to FHI.
CSER could also be on the list, precisely because it’s not just some random organization talking about how they want to reduce x-risk, but in fact is tightly connected to FHI.
For bystanders, note that opinions differ on whether CSER being tightly affiliated with FHI is a pro or a con. (Personally, I’m inclined to think that any the Great Filter is either behind us or impossible to subvert, given bonobos.)
Argh! Original post didn’t go through (probably my fault), so this will be shorter than it should be:
First point:
CEA = Giving What We Can, 80,000 Hours, and a bit of other stuff
Reason → donations to CEA predictably increase the size and strength of the EA community, a good proportion of whom take long-run considerations very seriously and will donate to / work for FHI/MIRI, or otherwise pursue careers with the aim of extinction risk mitigation. It’s plausible that $1 to CEA generates significantly more than $1′s worth of x-risk-value [note: I’m a trustee and founder of CEA].
Second point:
Don’t forget CSER. My view is that they are even higher-impact than MIRI or FHI (though I’d defer to Sean_o_h if he disagreed). Reason: marginal donations will be used to fund program management + grantwriting, which would turn ~$70k into a significant chance of ~$1-$10mn, and launch what I think might become one of the most important research institutions in the world. They have all the background (high profile people on the board; an already written previous grant proposal that very narrowly missed out on being successful). High leverage!
On point 1: I can confirm that members of CEA have done quite a lot of awareness-spreading about existential risks and long-run considerations, as well as bringing FHI, MIRI and other organisations to the attention of potential donors who have concerns in this area. I generally agree with Will’s point, and I think it’s very plausible that CEA’s work will result in more philanthropic funding coming FHI’s way in the future.
On point 2: I also agree. I need to have some discussion with the founders to confirm some points on strategy going forward as soon as the Christmas period’s over, but it’s likely that additional funds could play a big role in CSER’s progress in gaining larger funding streams. I’ll be posting on this shortly.
It sounds like CSER could use a loan. Would it be possible for me to donate to CSER and to get my money back if they get $500k+ in grants?
I should clarify that when I said “I think it’s hard to tell whether donations do more good at MIRI, FHI, CEA, or CFAR,” I didn’t mean that to be an exhaustive list. CSER could also be on the list, precisely because it’s not just some random organization talking about how they want to reduce x-risk, but in fact is tightly connected to FHI.
For bystanders, note that opinions differ on whether CSER being tightly affiliated with FHI is a pro or a con. (Personally, I’m inclined to think that any the Great Filter is either behind us or impossible to subvert, given bonobos.)
I looked but didn’t see any donation info for CSER. Are they soliciting donations?