Came across this paper posted in gr-qc (General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology) of all places. Abstract:
The observation that we are among the first 10^11 or so humans reduces the prior probability that we find ourselves in a species whose total lifetime number of individuals is much higher, according to arguments of Carter, Leslie, Nielsen, and Gott. However, if we instead start with a prior probability that a history has a total lifetime number which is very large, without assuming that we are in such a history, this more basic probability is not reduced by the observation of how early in history we exist.
While I am skeptical of anything Don Page (Hawking’s student and apparently an Evangelical Christian) writes on the topic of anthropics (he publishes stuff on Boltzmann Brains, for pity’s sake), Stuart Armstrong and other resident experts in the area should be able to tell if this paper has any substance. If anything, it has a good list of references on the topic.
[LINK] Too Soon for Doom Gloom?
Came across this paper posted in gr-qc (General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology) of all places. Abstract:
The observation that we are among the first 10^11 or so humans reduces the prior probability that we find ourselves in a species whose total lifetime number of individuals is much higher, according to arguments of Carter, Leslie, Nielsen, and Gott. However, if we instead start with a prior probability that a history has a total lifetime number which is very large, without assuming that we are in such a history, this more basic probability is not reduced by the observation of how early in history we exist.
While I am skeptical of anything Don Page (Hawking’s student and apparently an Evangelical Christian) writes on the topic of anthropics (he publishes stuff on Boltzmann Brains, for pity’s sake), Stuart Armstrong and other resident experts in the area should be able to tell if this paper has any substance. If anything, it has a good list of references on the topic.