To clarify: I think specifically Paul seems to have expected >$10 trillion in revenue prior to AIs that can easily takeover the world. This seems unlikely to me and I think Paul has updated against this. But, I do think we’re likely to get to >$1 trillion before this point and >$10 trillion seems plausible. So, we’re seemingly closer to Paul’s view than Eliezer’s view in log space on this particular question.
To clarify: I think specifically Paul seems to have expected >$10 trillion in revenue prior to AIs that can easily takeover the world. This seems unlikely to me and I think Paul has updated against this. But, I do think we’re likely to get to >$1 trillion before this point and >$10 trillion seems plausible. So, we’re seemingly closer to Paul’s view than Eliezer’s view in log space on this particular question.