Apologies, I did misread your original causality claim.
FPVs are less “air force” and more “precision munitions”. You can think of them as of a new “crewed ATGM” variant, command guidance and all.
They work great for precision ground-to-ground strikes, but play little role in what is meant by “air supremacy”. They can’t pose a meaningful threat to most air platforms, and most air platforms can’t effectively hit them. They do nothing to deny US the ability to perform CAS or otherwise hit targets from air.
The main exception to that is helicopters, for the same reasons why ATGMs can pose a threat to helicopters in some circumstances. Specialized FPV interceptors, in hands of skilled operators, can also hit other drones, including heavier fixed wing drones like Shahed or even Reaper—allowing them to intrude on MANPADS territory. But the traditional “JDAM trucks” aren’t in the same bracket as FPV drones.
We also have very little information of FPV crew survivability in an environment when one of the parties has advanced ISR, ELINT included, fast kill loops, and enough air control to drop JDAMs freely. Every reason to expect more attrition on FPV crews, and skilled operators aren’t easy to replace—but quantitively, we don’t know by how much. Might be enough to make “deny the enemy most FPV ops within an area” a viable prospect, but you can’t count on it.
Yeah, I was being sloppy with air supremacy as ability to easily conduct air operations (which the US does 95% have) vs completely deny enemy air operations, which the US arguably can’t do given that Shaheds, reconnaissance drones, and one-way FPVs serve some of the purposes one would previously have needed air support for. I would argue that the increasing range of FPVs, now 40+ km in Ukraine, puts them well beyond what ATGMs are capable of.
There are a lot of variables involved given how fast tech is evolving. If Iran can reliably pilot drones from 500 km away, they wouldn’t be risking skilled operators. If US interceptors work as well as Ukraine’s, they could probably intercept >90% of Iranian FPVs and Shaheds. A lot might hinge on who gets to a milestone like this first.
Apologies, I did misread your original causality claim.
FPVs are less “air force” and more “precision munitions”. You can think of them as of a new “crewed ATGM” variant, command guidance and all.
They work great for precision ground-to-ground strikes, but play little role in what is meant by “air supremacy”. They can’t pose a meaningful threat to most air platforms, and most air platforms can’t effectively hit them. They do nothing to deny US the ability to perform CAS or otherwise hit targets from air.
The main exception to that is helicopters, for the same reasons why ATGMs can pose a threat to helicopters in some circumstances. Specialized FPV interceptors, in hands of skilled operators, can also hit other drones, including heavier fixed wing drones like Shahed or even Reaper—allowing them to intrude on MANPADS territory. But the traditional “JDAM trucks” aren’t in the same bracket as FPV drones.
We also have very little information of FPV crew survivability in an environment when one of the parties has advanced ISR, ELINT included, fast kill loops, and enough air control to drop JDAMs freely. Every reason to expect more attrition on FPV crews, and skilled operators aren’t easy to replace—but quantitively, we don’t know by how much. Might be enough to make “deny the enemy most FPV ops within an area” a viable prospect, but you can’t count on it.
Yeah, I was being sloppy with air supremacy as ability to easily conduct air operations (which the US does 95% have) vs completely deny enemy air operations, which the US arguably can’t do given that Shaheds, reconnaissance drones, and one-way FPVs serve some of the purposes one would previously have needed air support for. I would argue that the increasing range of FPVs, now 40+ km in Ukraine, puts them well beyond what ATGMs are capable of.
There are a lot of variables involved given how fast tech is evolving. If Iran can reliably pilot drones from 500 km away, they wouldn’t be risking skilled operators. If US interceptors work as well as Ukraine’s, they could probably intercept >90% of Iranian FPVs and Shaheds. A lot might hinge on who gets to a milestone like this first.