Ah, I see! I have been butting my head against various ideas that lead to cooperating in one-shot PDs and the like and not making any progress, it was because while I had the idea of splitting my actions into groups conditional on the opponent’s action, I didn’t have the concept of doing the same for my opponent.
With that in mind, I can no longer parse my previous comment either. I think I meant that I would increase their probability of cooperating if I cooperated, and have them increase my probability of cooperating if they cooperated (thus decreasing both of our probabilities of defecting if the other cooperates), and then when the probabilities have moved far enough to tell us both to cooperate, I would defect, knowing that I would score a defect-against-cooperate. But yeah, it doesn’t make any sense at all, because the probabilities tell us both to cooperate.
Thanks for taking the time to explain this concept to me.
(Note that probability of you making a given decision is not knowable, when you are considering it yourself while allowing this consideration to influence the decision.)
Ah, I see! I have been butting my head against various ideas that lead to cooperating in one-shot PDs and the like and not making any progress, it was because while I had the idea of splitting my actions into groups conditional on the opponent’s action, I didn’t have the concept of doing the same for my opponent.
With that in mind, I can no longer parse my previous comment either. I think I meant that I would increase their probability of cooperating if I cooperated, and have them increase my probability of cooperating if they cooperated (thus decreasing both of our probabilities of defecting if the other cooperates), and then when the probabilities have moved far enough to tell us both to cooperate, I would defect, knowing that I would score a defect-against-cooperate. But yeah, it doesn’t make any sense at all, because the probabilities tell us both to cooperate.
Thanks for taking the time to explain this concept to me.
(Note that probability of you making a given decision is not knowable, when you are considering it yourself while allowing this consideration to influence the decision.)