Yes, on the calibration—in particular, how do you maintain focus to do the best you can with the information you’ve got? What sorts of information do you need?
I’m haunted by a quote from a holocaust survivor who said that he would have done things differently (presumably fled early) if he’d “had the soul of a poet”. Hindsight is 20⁄20, but predicting from group emotional trends is sometimes part of what’s necessary.
Depends on your level of paranoia. They might still be after you. Lets have that discussion.
It’s not just them being after you—sometimes medical decisions fall into the same category.
Maybe we should make a collection of realistic situations.
From a little thought I guess one tries to minimize damage, or maximize expected welfare. Both strategies need some calibration for realism.
Yes, on the calibration—in particular, how do you maintain focus to do the best you can with the information you’ve got? What sorts of information do you need?
I’m haunted by a quote from a holocaust survivor who said that he would have done things differently (presumably fled early) if he’d “had the soul of a poet”. Hindsight is 20⁄20, but predicting from group emotional trends is sometimes part of what’s necessary.