I think this is how I do make decisions in social contexts where I’m not running on instinct. I’m less convinced that expected social value is its own category. Seems more like applying regular expected value to a problem that happens to be social
Also, nitpick:
Our estimated probabilities of a person doing X after we do Y can be wildly off.
It doesn’t make too much sense to say that you assign the wrong probabilities. (What are the right probabilities?) It’s more that your probability distribution has a lot of uncertainty.[1]
And (2) is also not really specific to social contexts.
Yep I don’t think it’s a category in and of itself, but I have noticed that when it comes to decisions taken in non social settings, where others aren’t involved, most of the outcomes I think about are more me-centered than trying to predict what someone else will think or do—and imo, it’s a lot easier to predict me-centered things!
I see your point with “wrong” probabilities, and I agree that it’s more about uncertainty. Thanks for your thoughts :-)
I think this is how I do make decisions in social contexts where I’m not running on instinct. I’m less convinced that expected social value is its own category. Seems more like applying regular expected value to a problem that happens to be social
Also, nitpick:
It doesn’t make too much sense to say that you assign the wrong probabilities. (What are the right probabilities?) It’s more that your probability distribution has a lot of uncertainty.[1]
And (2) is also not really specific to social contexts.
“entropy” would be the corresponding mathematical property
Yep I don’t think it’s a category in and of itself, but I have noticed that when it comes to decisions taken in non social settings, where others aren’t involved, most of the outcomes I think about are more me-centered than trying to predict what someone else will think or do—and imo, it’s a lot easier to predict me-centered things!
I see your point with “wrong” probabilities, and I agree that it’s more about uncertainty. Thanks for your thoughts :-)