Thanks for the reply. If I’m understanding correctly, leaving aside the various complications you bring up, are you describing a potential slow growth curve that (to a rough approximation) looks like:
economic value of AI grows 2x per year (you said >3x, but 2x is easier b/c it lines up with the “GDP doubles in 1 year” criterion)
GDP first doubles in 1 year in (say) 2033
that means AI takes GDP from (roughly) $100T to $200T in 2033
extrapolating backward, AI is worth $9B this year, and will be worth $18B next year
This story sounds plausible to me, and it basically fits the slow-takeoff operationalization.
Thanks for the reply. If I’m understanding correctly, leaving aside the various complications you bring up, are you describing a potential slow growth curve that (to a rough approximation) looks like:
economic value of AI grows 2x per year (you said >3x, but 2x is easier b/c it lines up with the “GDP doubles in 1 year” criterion)
GDP first doubles in 1 year in (say) 2033
that means AI takes GDP from (roughly) $100T to $200T in 2033
extrapolating backward, AI is worth $9B this year, and will be worth $18B next year
This story sounds plausible to me, and it basically fits the slow-takeoff operationalization.