After thinking a bit more about the issue of welcoming Russian immigrants and deserters at this point in time, I discovered a major weakness in this policy option:
First of all, if mass emigration of skilled Russian citizens becomes a genuine concern to Putin, he could always close the borders. Emigration is a gradual process that can be stopped at any point.
Second, no matter how passionately one argues for the rationale behind such a policy, on the surface it still looks like rewarding the people of a country for their government’s aggression. While the imagery of Russian deserters chilling on the beach of some tropical paradise might look enticing to Russian soldiers still fighting in Ukraine, it would also be insulting to Ukrainian civilians who were turned back at the border and told to go back and fight for their country.
Putin could also easily plant agents amid these immigrants that could conduct terrorist attacks in the EU. Now I don’t doubt he has the ability to do this anyway, mass emigration or not, but the narrative would be a completely different one in this case. This is political ammunition for opposition parties in the West to attack incumbents for this “failing” policy of welcoming Russians in particular, which will quickly devolve into a debate about broader immigration policy, which is a very sensitive issue to begin with. It would greatly weaken the rare unity the West has achieved lately, and it would also distract Western audience from the war in Ukraine itself.
Of course, conducting terrorist attacks in the EU would not exactly make Putin popular here in the West, but that’s hardly a concern for him right now. Public opinion in the West can’t be shifted any more against Putin in a useful manner anyway, and the radicalization of some people in response to such attacks will only lead to irrationally lashing out against ordinary citizens of Russian origin, which would just fuel more division and polarization. And sowing division is all Putin wants.
There are ways to mitigate this problem. Keeping a low profile would shield incumbent EU politicians from much of the blame, but then communicating to Russian soldiers the option of deserting to the EU in a believable manner becomes a challenge. Even better would be to convince non-Western countries to take up such political refugees, but it’s hard to see what’s in it for them.
After thinking a bit more about the issue of welcoming Russian immigrants and deserters at this point in time, I discovered a major weakness in this policy option:
First of all, if mass emigration of skilled Russian citizens becomes a genuine concern to Putin, he could always close the borders. Emigration is a gradual process that can be stopped at any point.
Second, no matter how passionately one argues for the rationale behind such a policy, on the surface it still looks like rewarding the people of a country for their government’s aggression. While the imagery of Russian deserters chilling on the beach of some tropical paradise might look enticing to Russian soldiers still fighting in Ukraine, it would also be insulting to Ukrainian civilians who were turned back at the border and told to go back and fight for their country.
Putin could also easily plant agents amid these immigrants that could conduct terrorist attacks in the EU. Now I don’t doubt he has the ability to do this anyway, mass emigration or not, but the narrative would be a completely different one in this case. This is political ammunition for opposition parties in the West to attack incumbents for this “failing” policy of welcoming Russians in particular, which will quickly devolve into a debate about broader immigration policy, which is a very sensitive issue to begin with. It would greatly weaken the rare unity the West has achieved lately, and it would also distract Western audience from the war in Ukraine itself.
Of course, conducting terrorist attacks in the EU would not exactly make Putin popular here in the West, but that’s hardly a concern for him right now. Public opinion in the West can’t be shifted any more against Putin in a useful manner anyway, and the radicalization of some people in response to such attacks will only lead to irrationally lashing out against ordinary citizens of Russian origin, which would just fuel more division and polarization. And sowing division is all Putin wants.
There are ways to mitigate this problem. Keeping a low profile would shield incumbent EU politicians from much of the blame, but then communicating to Russian soldiers the option of deserting to the EU in a believable manner becomes a challenge. Even better would be to convince non-Western countries to take up such political refugees, but it’s hard to see what’s in it for them.