I agree my point is less important if we get ASI by 2030, compared to if we don’t get ASI.
That being said, the arms race can develop over the timespan of years not decades. 6-year superhumans will prompt people to create the next generation of superhumans, and within 10-15 years we will have children from multiple generations where the younger generation have edits with stronger effect sizes. Once we can see the effects on these multiple generations, people might go at max pace.
I agree my point is less important if we get ASI by 2030, compared to if we don’t get ASI.
That being said, the arms race can develop over the timespan of years not decades. 6-year superhumans will prompt people to create the next generation of superhumans, and within 10-15 years we will have children from multiple generations where the younger generation have edits with stronger effect sizes. Once we can see the effects on these multiple generations, people might go at max pace.