I tried finding counterparties to bet but couldn’t. Since the bets are denominated in dollars (and not S&P500 shares), both sides want a return that outperforms S&P500.
I also think the default outcome of the US govt taking control of an AI lab is to ensure the arms race continues.
I know LW has some policymakers who are trying to convince the US govt not to do this. I think this strategy is probably going to fail, although I think it’s worth still trying for some people.
Will the US govt take (majority) control of any AI company or project by 2030 - Kalshi prediction market
I currently forecast 50% probability on this.
I tried finding counterparties to bet but couldn’t. Since the bets are denominated in dollars (and not S&P500 shares), both sides want a return that outperforms S&P500.
I also think the default outcome of the US govt taking control of an AI lab is to ensure the arms race continues.
I know LW has some policymakers who are trying to convince the US govt not to do this. I think this strategy is probably going to fail, although I think it’s worth still trying for some people.