I think purchasing SPY far OTM calls is positive EV and a good bet given the risk level.
For now consider strike price 20% above current price, and expiration 2027-12.
I’m guessing 33% probability SPY moves up atleast 40% by 2027-12 and 10% probability SPY moves up atleast 50% by 2027-12.
Main reason for this is advances in AI capabilities.
I am personally not buying because I want to save my money for a project I actually believe in—maybe my YouTube channel on Ban AI, maybe some tech project—but I think it could make sense for people who don’t have such a project.
I think purchasing SPY far OTM calls is positive EV and a good bet given the risk level.
For now consider strike price 20% above current price, and expiration 2027-12.
I’m guessing 33% probability SPY moves up atleast 40% by 2027-12 and 10% probability SPY moves up atleast 50% by 2027-12.
Main reason for this is advances in AI capabilities.
I am personally not buying because I want to save my money for a project I actually believe in—maybe my YouTube channel on Ban AI, maybe some tech project—but I think it could make sense for people who don’t have such a project.