Another way of operationalizing the objections to your argument are: what is the analogue to the event “flips heads”? If the predicate used is “conditional on AI models achieving power level X, what is the probability of Y event?” and the new model is below level X, by construction we have gained 0 bits of information about this.
Obviously this example is a little contrived, but not that contrived, and trying to figure out what fair predicates are to register will result in more objections to your original statement.
Another way of operationalizing the objections to your argument are: what is the analogue to the event “flips heads”? If the predicate used is “conditional on AI models achieving power level X, what is the probability of Y event?” and the new model is below level X, by construction we have gained 0 bits of information about this.
Obviously this example is a little contrived, but not that contrived, and trying to figure out what fair predicates are to register will result in more objections to your original statement.
I’ve made a reply formalising this.