Unless the list of disjunctive scenarios is infinite, can’t you consider counterevidence to each scenario separately until you’ve gone through all of them? If the scenarios are all implausible, it should be possible to conclude this eventually.
I think there’s a sense in which disjunctive reasoning makes conclusions more robust rather than less so. (Assuming it’s done properly.) It’s hard to get scenarios exactly right, but sometimes we might be able to predict trends (or endpoints/attractors) based on seeing that there are multiple paths toward a certain outcome.
Predicting the future is difficult, but in theory, for each assumption in (e.g.) Superintelligence, you can imagine possible observations that would make it more or less likely. Sometimes there might be controversy among experts. For instance, person A might say that Bostrom’s arguments about the intelligence explosion are less likely true in worlds where bird brains are architecturally on par with chimpanzee brains, whereas person B might disagree, thinking that comparing those architectures is mostly irrelevant. Because of such controversies about what constitutes evidence (based on disagreements about what’s an appropriate reference class), it’s difficult to assess long-term predictions before they come to pass. However, that doesn’t mean it’s impossible. I would bet that we can do better than chance by having experts agree on possible observations that they consider less likely (or more likely) to happen in worlds where Bostrom’s claims apply/don’t apply. That’s what confirmation/discomfirmation is about. It’s mostly probabilistic. (Falsifiability as a binary on-off concept is an outdated mode of doing science.)
I agree with you that Bostrom has a very convincing argument to make in terms of ‘attractors’.
That’s what confirmation/discomfirmation is about. It’s mostly probabilistic. (Falsifiability as a binary on-off concept is an outdated mode of doing science.)
This makes Bostrom’s work make much more sense but see my response to Daniel to see where I think it might still be problematic.
Unless the list of disjunctive scenarios is infinite, can’t you consider counterevidence to each scenario separately until you’ve gone through all of them? If the scenarios are all implausible, it should be possible to conclude this eventually.
I think there’s a sense in which disjunctive reasoning makes conclusions more robust rather than less so. (Assuming it’s done properly.) It’s hard to get scenarios exactly right, but sometimes we might be able to predict trends (or endpoints/attractors) based on seeing that there are multiple paths toward a certain outcome.
Predicting the future is difficult, but in theory, for each assumption in (e.g.) Superintelligence, you can imagine possible observations that would make it more or less likely. Sometimes there might be controversy among experts. For instance, person A might say that Bostrom’s arguments about the intelligence explosion are less likely true in worlds where bird brains are architecturally on par with chimpanzee brains, whereas person B might disagree, thinking that comparing those architectures is mostly irrelevant. Because of such controversies about what constitutes evidence (based on disagreements about what’s an appropriate reference class), it’s difficult to assess long-term predictions before they come to pass. However, that doesn’t mean it’s impossible. I would bet that we can do better than chance by having experts agree on possible observations that they consider less likely (or more likely) to happen in worlds where Bostrom’s claims apply/don’t apply. That’s what confirmation/discomfirmation is about. It’s mostly probabilistic. (Falsifiability as a binary on-off concept is an outdated mode of doing science.)
I agree with you that Bostrom has a very convincing argument to make in terms of ‘attractors’.
This makes Bostrom’s work make much more sense but see my response to Daniel to see where I think it might still be problematic.