I was very surprised to see that too, to the point of questioning whether the result was real, but apparently it is. (The particular result is on page 10 — and possibly elsewhere, I haven’t read it through yet.)
Let’s be fair: that study was measuring the fraction of people that say they’d take an imaginary $500 over an imaginary 15% chance at an imaginary $1 million.
I doubt that most respondents were deliberately messing with the survey results, but I do think that people may use different decision-making resources for amusing hypotheticals vs. for the real world. E.g. the percentage of people getting the Wason Selection Task correct can jump from under 10% to over 70% when you change the task context from more abstract to more concrete. I suspect that for lots of people imaginary money counts as too abstract.
Assuming you weren’t joking, that doesn’t seem likely. The PDF Tesseract linked is about surveying college students, primarily, from elite institutions like Harvard, MIT, Princeton, or CMU. They are people one would especially expect to be making the expected value calculation and going with that.
Wow. I don’t think I’d heard that one.
I was very surprised to see that too, to the point of questioning whether the result was real, but apparently it is. (The particular result is on page 10 — and possibly elsewhere, I haven’t read it through yet.)
Your link doesn’t work for me.
Let’s be fair: that study was measuring the fraction of people that say they’d take an imaginary $500 over an imaginary 15% chance at an imaginary $1 million.
I doubt that most respondents were deliberately messing with the survey results, but I do think that people may use different decision-making resources for amusing hypotheticals vs. for the real world. E.g. the percentage of people getting the Wason Selection Task correct can jump from under 10% to over 70% when you change the task context from more abstract to more concrete. I suspect that for lots of people imaginary money counts as too abstract.
I guess some folks could really use $500.
Assuming you weren’t joking, that doesn’t seem likely. The PDF Tesseract linked is about surveying college students, primarily, from elite institutions like Harvard, MIT, Princeton, or CMU. They are people one would especially expect to be making the expected value calculation and going with that.
In that case, let’s say I was joking ;)