I arrived at the site from the HP fanfiction after reading the author’s notes concerning the case.
Probability estimate that Amanda Knox is guilty -- 99%
Knox and Sollecito’s alibis are contingent on the other. However, I recognize that there is a probability that one may lie to cover the other, so it is not implausible that one may be guilty without the other being so. While they certainly had the opportunity to murder, there appears to be neither motive nor weapon. The only credible evidence against Sollecito is his DNA being on the bra hook material, and there’s a great deal of controversy regarding that specimen. The knife thing is just stupid. I have had roommates, and I can guarantee you there are DNA traces of both me and my roommate on pretty much every knife we’ve ever had. Frankly, the only reason I’m judging Knox’s probability of being a murderer being so high is that they’re two girls who shared a bathroom, so she automatically has motive.
I recognize that having read the author’s notes, I am biased to believe that Amanda Knox is innocent. That being said, I am completely unfamiliar with the case. I went to the pro-guilty site first, where I had a great deal of difficulty discerning relevant information. I spent approximately 20 minutes navigating the site, growing more and more convinced that Amanda Knox and Rafaele Solecito were not guilty because of the near-impossibility of finding relevant facts that pointed out to their guilt. I then went to the pro-innocent site, and spent about 5 minutes there, which confirmed what I suspected; that the evidence against said defendants was completely circumstantial. I then proceeded to read approximately 1⁄2 of the Massei report, which struck me as rather biased, which made me very sad when I realized he was the presiding judge in the case. Regardless, by that point I was convinced the prosecution had no case, and was largely built on inconsistencies in Amanda Knox’s testimony. I was then annoyed to realize that much of the case had to do with Pretty White Girl Syndrome, because however little evidence there was against Amanda Knox, there was even less against her boyfriend Sollecito. I the proceeded to the Wikipedia article, because let’s face it, there’s really no better place for an overview of the whole shebang . At this point, I’m pretty much offended at this travesty of justice. The evidence against these two defendants seems to be, “they did not have completely time-consistent alibis” and some bum says he saw them together near the murder scene.
edit: I am basing my probabilities on two primary factors: 1) I saw no evidence that Knox or Sollecito were at the crime scene and their alibi seems eminently plausible to me and 2) The pro-guilty site seems batshit crazy.
I’m here similarly after reading the aforementioned author note.
There’s no legitimate controversy regarding the bra clasp. The clasp was cataloged six weeks after the murder and after being handled by multiple investigators. Sollecito had, of course, visited the apartment multiple times in the two weeks prior to the murder investigation beginning, so his DNA was present in the apartment. The DNA found on the bra clasp was entirely consistent with contamination, and the circumstances under which the clasp was cataloged make contamination inevitable. No reputable judge would ever allow the jury to consider the bra clasp as evidence.
Given the lack of any other evidence against Sollecito and the compelling evidence against Guede, no rational person would attribute any weight to the bra clasp.
Anyway, I’d heard about the case before, but hadn’t followed it.
There’s no physical evidence against either Knox or Sollecito, the inconsistencies in their statements are classical examples of the inconsistencies brought about by sleep deprived intimidation and interrogation by the police, and all the “theories” about how they participated in the murder and covered up the physical evidence of their participation are tin-foil hat material. And there’s an absolutely compelling suspect who isn’t them.
Probability that AK is guilty: indistinguishable from 0%.
Probability that Sollecito is guilty: indistinguishable from 0%.
Given that Guede was in the apartment at the time of the murder (admitted by him), his DNA was found inside the victim, he initially offered a ridiculously implausible story about how the murder happened (“Guede claimed he suddenly needed to use the bathroom, and while he was sitting on the toilet listening to his iPod, a stranger entered the cottage and attacked Meredith. Guede said he emerged from the bathroom and grappled with the stranger, who ran off into the night after shouting “a black man found is a black man condemned.”) and changed his story to name Sollecito once he knew the police and prosecutor’s “theory,” and the supporting DNA evidence against him that can’t be explained by visits to the apartment prior to the murder:
Probability that Guede is guilty: > 99%, with some distinguishably greater than 0% but not significant chance that his initial implausible story was true.
I had much the same experience as Sinai. Personally, though, I didn’t bother to try this test after having already been biased by Eliezer’s opinion on the matter.
Also, I feel that the uselessness of the linked pro-guilt site hurts the overall experiment too much. I know it wasn’t translated at the time, but using the Massei report as Sinai did makes the test much more effective.
I know it wasn’t translated at the time, but using the Massei report as Sinai did makes the test much more effective.
It’s not just that it hadn’t been translated; it hadn’t even been written!
It came out in March, around the same time as Bruce Fisher’s excellent Injustice in Perugia site went up. If I were proposing this experiment today, those would be the sources I would use (i.e. the Massei-Cristiani report for pro-guilt, and IIP, including the appeal summaries, for pro-innocence).
Believe it or not, True Justice for Meredith Kercher represented about the highest quality pro-guilt advocacy available at the time of this post.
I arrived at the site from the HP fanfiction after reading the author’s notes concerning the case.
Probability estimate that Amanda Knox is guilty -- 99%
Knox and Sollecito’s alibis are contingent on the other. However, I recognize that there is a probability that one may lie to cover the other, so it is not implausible that one may be guilty without the other being so. While they certainly had the opportunity to murder, there appears to be neither motive nor weapon. The only credible evidence against Sollecito is his DNA being on the bra hook material, and there’s a great deal of controversy regarding that specimen. The knife thing is just stupid. I have had roommates, and I can guarantee you there are DNA traces of both me and my roommate on pretty much every knife we’ve ever had. Frankly, the only reason I’m judging Knox’s probability of being a murderer being so high is that they’re two girls who shared a bathroom, so she automatically has motive.
I recognize that having read the author’s notes, I am biased to believe that Amanda Knox is innocent. That being said, I am completely unfamiliar with the case. I went to the pro-guilty site first, where I had a great deal of difficulty discerning relevant information. I spent approximately 20 minutes navigating the site, growing more and more convinced that Amanda Knox and Rafaele Solecito were not guilty because of the near-impossibility of finding relevant facts that pointed out to their guilt. I then went to the pro-innocent site, and spent about 5 minutes there, which confirmed what I suspected; that the evidence against said defendants was completely circumstantial. I then proceeded to read approximately 1⁄2 of the Massei report, which struck me as rather biased, which made me very sad when I realized he was the presiding judge in the case. Regardless, by that point I was convinced the prosecution had no case, and was largely built on inconsistencies in Amanda Knox’s testimony. I was then annoyed to realize that much of the case had to do with Pretty White Girl Syndrome, because however little evidence there was against Amanda Knox, there was even less against her boyfriend Sollecito. I the proceeded to the Wikipedia article, because let’s face it, there’s really no better place for an overview of the whole shebang . At this point, I’m pretty much offended at this travesty of justice. The evidence against these two defendants seems to be, “they did not have completely time-consistent alibis” and some bum says he saw them together near the murder scene.
edit: I am basing my probabilities on two primary factors: 1) I saw no evidence that Knox or Sollecito were at the crime scene and their alibi seems eminently plausible to me and 2) The pro-guilty site seems batshit crazy.
I’m here similarly after reading the aforementioned author note.
There’s no legitimate controversy regarding the bra clasp. The clasp was cataloged six weeks after the murder and after being handled by multiple investigators. Sollecito had, of course, visited the apartment multiple times in the two weeks prior to the murder investigation beginning, so his DNA was present in the apartment. The DNA found on the bra clasp was entirely consistent with contamination, and the circumstances under which the clasp was cataloged make contamination inevitable. No reputable judge would ever allow the jury to consider the bra clasp as evidence.
Given the lack of any other evidence against Sollecito and the compelling evidence against Guede, no rational person would attribute any weight to the bra clasp.
Anyway, I’d heard about the case before, but hadn’t followed it.
There’s no physical evidence against either Knox or Sollecito, the inconsistencies in their statements are classical examples of the inconsistencies brought about by sleep deprived intimidation and interrogation by the police, and all the “theories” about how they participated in the murder and covered up the physical evidence of their participation are tin-foil hat material. And there’s an absolutely compelling suspect who isn’t them.
Probability that AK is guilty: indistinguishable from 0%. Probability that Sollecito is guilty: indistinguishable from 0%.
Given that Guede was in the apartment at the time of the murder (admitted by him), his DNA was found inside the victim, he initially offered a ridiculously implausible story about how the murder happened (“Guede claimed he suddenly needed to use the bathroom, and while he was sitting on the toilet listening to his iPod, a stranger entered the cottage and attacked Meredith. Guede said he emerged from the bathroom and grappled with the stranger, who ran off into the night after shouting “a black man found is a black man condemned.”) and changed his story to name Sollecito once he knew the police and prosecutor’s “theory,” and the supporting DNA evidence against him that can’t be explained by visits to the apartment prior to the murder:
Probability that Guede is guilty: > 99%, with some distinguishably greater than 0% but not significant chance that his initial implausible story was true.
I had much the same experience as Sinai. Personally, though, I didn’t bother to try this test after having already been biased by Eliezer’s opinion on the matter.
Also, I feel that the uselessness of the linked pro-guilt site hurts the overall experiment too much. I know it wasn’t translated at the time, but using the Massei report as Sinai did makes the test much more effective.
It’s not just that it hadn’t been translated; it hadn’t even been written!
It came out in March, around the same time as Bruce Fisher’s excellent Injustice in Perugia site went up. If I were proposing this experiment today, those would be the sources I would use (i.e. the Massei-Cristiani report for pro-guilt, and IIP, including the appeal summaries, for pro-innocence).
Believe it or not, True Justice for Meredith Kercher represented about the highest quality pro-guilt advocacy available at the time of this post.