By guilty, do we mean “committed or significantly contributed to the murder”?
Or do we mean “committed or significantly contributed to the murder AND there is enough evidence showing that to satisfy the beyond-a-reasonable-doubt (or Italian equivalent) standard of proof for murder”?
The comments don’t seem to make that distinction, but I think it could make a big difference.
probability = probability of having committed murder, not probability of sufficient evidence
I interpreted it as ‘how would you vote if you were on the jury’, which implies ‘guilty beyond reasonable doubt’ under the legal systems I’m familiar with. I don’t know if the standard is any different in Italy.
I agree that that’s one reasonable interpretation.
I just want to emphasize that that standard is very different than the weaker “if I had to guess, I would say that the person actually committed the crime.” The first standard is higher. Also, the law might forbid you from considering certain facts/evidence, even if you know in the back of your mind that the evidence is there and suggestive. There are probably other differences between the standards that I’m not thinking of.