I am unable to see how this boils down to anything but a moral problem (and therefore with no objective solution).
Compare this to a simple lost bet. Omega tells you about the deal, you agree, and then he flips a coin, which comes out tails. Why exactly would you pay the $100 in this example?
Because someone will punish/ostracise me if I renege (or other external consequences)? Then in the CM case all that matters is what the consequences are for your payment/refusal.
Because I have an absolute/irrational/moral desire to hold to my word? Then the only question is whether your definition of “my word” (or, more generally, your self-imposed moral obligations) includes counterfactual promises. But this is only a matter of choosing the boundaries of your arbitrary moral guidelines. It is hardly more solvable or more interesting than asking if you would consider yourself morally beholden to a promise you made when you were four years old.
I am unable to see how this boils down to anything but a moral problem (and therefore with no objective solution).
Compare this to a simple lost bet. Omega tells you about the deal, you agree, and then he flips a coin, which comes out tails. Why exactly would you pay the $100 in this example?
Because someone will punish/ostracise me if I renege (or other external consequences)? Then in the CM case all that matters is what the consequences are for your payment/refusal.
Because I have an absolute/irrational/moral desire to hold to my word? Then the only question is whether your definition of “my word” (or, more generally, your self-imposed moral obligations) includes counterfactual promises. But this is only a matter of choosing the boundaries of your arbitrary moral guidelines. It is hardly more solvable or more interesting than asking if you would consider yourself morally beholden to a promise you made when you were four years old.