this argument applies equally to AI risk, as fruitful artificial intelligence research is likely to be associated with higher economic growth
Yes, fruitful AI research is likely to be associated with higher economic growth. And fruitful AI research is the risk factor here, so we have positive beta.
The existential risk with AI isn’t “we won’t develop AI and then the future of humanity won’t be as awesome”, it’s “we will develop AI which turns out to be un-Friendly and then the future of humanity won’t be”.
Yes, fruitful AI research is likely to be associated with higher economic growth. And fruitful AI research is the risk factor here, so we have positive beta.
The existential risk with AI isn’t “we won’t develop AI and then the future of humanity won’t be as awesome”, it’s “we will develop AI which turns out to be un-Friendly and then the future of humanity won’t be”.