MrHen, whatever strategy you’re employing here, it doesn’t sound like a strategy for arriving at the really truly correct answer, but some sort of clever set of verbal responses with a different purpose entirely. In real life, just because Omega asked if the bead is red simply does not mean there is probability 0 of it being green.
MrHen, whatever strategy you’re employing here, it doesn’t sound like a strategy for arriving at the really truly correct answer, but some sort of clever set of verbal responses with a different purpose entirely.
Mmm… I was not trying to employ a strategy with clever verbal responses. I thought I was arguing against that, actually, so I must be far from where I think I am.
I feel like I am trying to answer a completely different question than the one originally asked. Is the question:
Knowing nothing about what is in the jar except that its contents are divided by color as per our definition of “color”, what is the probability of a red bead being pulled?
Knowing nothing about what is in the jar, what is the probability of a red bead being pulled?
I admittedly assumed the latter even though the article used words closer to the former. Perhaps this was my mistake?
In real life, just because Omega asked if the bead is red simply does not mean there is probability 0 of it being green.
I would agree. I do think that Omega asking about a red bead implies nothing about the probability of it being green. What I am currently wondering is if the question implies anything about the probability of the bead being red. If Omega acknowledges that the bead could be red, does that give red a higher probability than green?
I suppose I instinctively would answer affirmatively. The reasoning is that “red” is now included in the jar’s potential outcomes while green has not been acknowledged yet. In other words, green doesn’t even have a probability. Strictly speaking, this makes little sense, so I must be misstepping somewhere. My hunches are pointing toward my disallowing green into the potential outcomes.
This does not mean that I refuse to think of green as a color, but that green is not automatically included in the jar’s potential outcomes just because Omega used the word “color”. Is this the verbal cleverness you were referring to?
(Switching thoughts) In terms of arriving at the really truly correct answer, it seems that a strategy that gets closer as more beads is what is desired. If no beads are revealed, what sort of strategy is possible? I think the answer to this revolves around my potential confusion of the original question.
I apologize if I am mudding things up and am way off base.
MrHen, whatever strategy you’re employing here, it doesn’t sound like a strategy for arriving at the really truly correct answer, but some sort of clever set of verbal responses with a different purpose entirely. In real life, just because Omega asked if the bead is red simply does not mean there is probability 0 of it being green.
Mmm… I was not trying to employ a strategy with clever verbal responses. I thought I was arguing against that, actually, so I must be far from where I think I am.
I feel like I am trying to answer a completely different question than the one originally asked. Is the question:
Knowing nothing about what is in the jar except that its contents are divided by color as per our definition of “color”, what is the probability of a red bead being pulled?
Knowing nothing about what is in the jar, what is the probability of a red bead being pulled?
I admittedly assumed the latter even though the article used words closer to the former. Perhaps this was my mistake?
I would agree. I do think that Omega asking about a red bead implies nothing about the probability of it being green. What I am currently wondering is if the question implies anything about the probability of the bead being red. If Omega acknowledges that the bead could be red, does that give red a higher probability than green?
I suppose I instinctively would answer affirmatively. The reasoning is that “red” is now included in the jar’s potential outcomes while green has not been acknowledged yet. In other words, green doesn’t even have a probability. Strictly speaking, this makes little sense, so I must be misstepping somewhere. My hunches are pointing toward my disallowing green into the potential outcomes.
This does not mean that I refuse to think of green as a color, but that green is not automatically included in the jar’s potential outcomes just because Omega used the word “color”. Is this the verbal cleverness you were referring to?
(Switching thoughts) In terms of arriving at the really truly correct answer, it seems that a strategy that gets closer as more beads is what is desired. If no beads are revealed, what sort of strategy is possible? I think the answer to this revolves around my potential confusion of the original question.
I apologize if I am mudding things up and am way off base.
Is Omega privileging the hypothesis that the bead is red?:-)