Not sure what the LW consensus is, but there’s some evidence that Roko’s basilisk is a red herring.
Fortunately, a proper understanding of subjunctive dependence tells us that an optimally-behaving embedded agent doesn’t need to pretend that causation can happen backward in time. Such a sovereign would not be in control of its source code, and it can’t execute an updateless strategy if there was nothing there to not-update on in the first place before that source code was written. So Roko’s Basilisk is only an information hazard if FDT is poorly understood.
Not sure what the LW consensus is, but there’s some evidence that Roko’s basilisk is a red herring.
From the post Dissolving Confusion around Functional Decision Theory.