Great article, however, there is a third important option which is ‘request proof then, if passed, donate’ (Holden seem to have opted for this in his review of S.I., but it is broadly applicable in general).
For example if there is a charity promising to save 10 millions people using a method X that is not very likely to work, but is very cheap—a Pascal Wager like situation. In this situation, even if this charity is presently the best in terms of expected payoff it may be a better option still to, rather than paying the full sum, pay only enough for a basic test of method X which the method X would be unlikely to pass if it is ineffective; then donating if the test has passed. This decreases the expected cost proportionally to the unlikelihood of X efficacy and the specificity of the test.
That’s true; the ‘Value of Information’ is often overlooked. This is one reason I am keen on the Brain Preservation Prize: unlike SENS or SIAI or cryonics, here we have cheap tests which can be carried out soon and will give us decent information on how well it’s working.
Great article, however, there is a third important option which is ‘request proof then, if passed, donate’ (Holden seem to have opted for this in his review of S.I., but it is broadly applicable in general).
For example if there is a charity promising to save 10 millions people using a method X that is not very likely to work, but is very cheap—a Pascal Wager like situation. In this situation, even if this charity is presently the best in terms of expected payoff it may be a better option still to, rather than paying the full sum, pay only enough for a basic test of method X which the method X would be unlikely to pass if it is ineffective; then donating if the test has passed. This decreases the expected cost proportionally to the unlikelihood of X efficacy and the specificity of the test.
That’s true; the ‘Value of Information’ is often overlooked. This is one reason I am keen on the Brain Preservation Prize: unlike SENS or SIAI or cryonics, here we have cheap tests which can be carried out soon and will give us decent information on how well it’s working.