If we live in a world where the discover of the planning fallacy can fall victim to it, we live in a world where teachers of rationality fail to improve anyone’s rationality skills.
This conclusion is way too strong. To just give one way: there’s a big space of possibilities where discovering the planning fallacy in fact makes you less susceptible to the planning fallacy, but not immune.
Actually, if the CFAR could reliably reduce susceptibility to the planning fallacy, they are wasting their time with AI safety—they could be making a fortune teaching their methods to the software industry, or engineers in general.
If we live in a world where the discover of the planning fallacy can fall victim to it, we live in a world where teachers of rationality fail to improve anyone’s rationality skills.
This conclusion is way too strong. To just give one way: there’s a big space of possibilities where discovering the planning fallacy in fact makes you less susceptible to the planning fallacy, but not immune.
Actually, if the CFAR could reliably reduce susceptibility to the planning fallacy, they are wasting their time with AI safety—they could be making a fortune teaching their methods to the software industry, or engineers in general.