One point that maybe someone’s made, but I haven’t run across recently: if you want to turn AI development into a Manhattan Project, you will by-default face some real delays from the reorganization of private efforts into one big national effort. In a close race, you might actually see pressures not to do so, because you don’t want to give up 6 months to a year on reorg drama—so in some possible worlds, the Project is actually a deceleration move in the short term, even if it accelerates in the long term!
One point that maybe someone’s made, but I haven’t run across recently: if you want to turn AI development into a Manhattan Project, you will by-default face some real delays from the reorganization of private efforts into one big national effort. In a close race, you might actually see pressures not to do so, because you don’t want to give up 6 months to a year on reorg drama—so in some possible worlds, the Project is actually a deceleration move in the short term, even if it accelerates in the long term!
This is a point that’s definitely come up in private discussions I’ve been a part of. I don’t remember if I saw it said publicly somewhere.
I am (sincerely!) glad that this is obvious to other people too and that they are talking about it already!