The “there will be no warning shots” claim was always the security mindset talking: it could equally be phrased “we should be able to survive even if there are no warning shots” and “a rogue AI smarter than you has a strong incentive not to give you a warning shot but instead bide its time until it’s sure of sucess (unless that means you might meanwhile build something else smarter than it)”.
IMO, we currently have a fusillade of minor warning shots going on, and as people rush to add agents to the economy, we’ll get louder ones.
The “there will be no warning shots” claim was always the security mindset talking: it could equally be phrased “we should be able to survive even if there are no warning shots” and “a rogue AI smarter than you has a strong incentive not to give you a warning shot but instead bide its time until it’s sure of sucess (unless that means you might meanwhile build something else smarter than it)”.
IMO, we currently have a fusillade of minor warning shots going on, and as people rush to add agents to the economy, we’ll get louder ones.