Moreover, I’d say that stopping “at the last possible moment” and other arguments implicitly says a lot of things, all of which I deem to be 10% likely:
We know when the last possible moment even is. To be able to say that, is to say that 50% of ai research has succeeded. What I mean by that is that for any group to say “Model version N is at a position such that Model version N+1 will destroy civilization”, requires a complete understanding of some Model N, which is presumably some N-x versions away in the future, and thus more complex and more advanced than what we have today.
We know whether a model isn’t dangerous. To know whether a model isn’t dangerous implies that we can know whether a model is dangerous. This requires us, again, to have progressed far into ai research in a distance there is no evidence to claim is possible or attainable
We know whether a model is dangerous, such that we need to pause ai development, and therefore will not release the model to the public. This implies that we have the ability to contain a model that is very capable. This ability to contain these models, which has been discussed a lot, has not been shown to exist.
The above claims do not refer to the models currently blocked by the US government. Personally, I’d say with 99% confidence that the capabilities that are required to end civilization do not exist in those models.
Moreover, I’d say that stopping “at the last possible moment” and other arguments implicitly says a lot of things, all of which I deem to be 10% likely:
We know when the last possible moment even is. To be able to say that, is to say that 50% of ai research has succeeded. What I mean by that is that for any group to say “Model version N is at a position such that Model version N+1 will destroy civilization”, requires a complete understanding of some Model N, which is presumably some N-x versions away in the future, and thus more complex and more advanced than what we have today.
We know whether a model isn’t dangerous. To know whether a model isn’t dangerous implies that we can know whether a model is dangerous. This requires us, again, to have progressed far into ai research in a distance there is no evidence to claim is possible or attainable
We know whether a model is dangerous, such that we need to pause ai development, and therefore will not release the model to the public. This implies that we have the ability to contain a model that is very capable. This ability to contain these models, which has been discussed a lot, has not been shown to exist.
The above claims do not refer to the models currently blocked by the US government. Personally, I’d say with 99% confidence that the capabilities that are required to end civilization do not exist in those models.