Hm, I guess it is circular. Dang. The question is really “is bayesian probability correct in general?”
Do you mean rwallace’s scenario with the copies? The probabilities seem correct, though since there are multiple copies, normalization might be broken (or artificially enforced) somewhere I didn’t notice, like in Sleeping Beauty. I’m a bit unsure. What is clear is that there isn’t actually a discontinuity at short times—since the probability comes form the evidence of your memories, not how it “really happened.”
EDIT: There does appear to be an inconsistency when making serial copies—computing it different ways gives different answers. Freaking normalization.
Hm, I guess it is circular. Dang. The question is really “is bayesian probability correct in general?”
Do you mean rwallace’s scenario with the copies? The probabilities seem correct, though since there are multiple copies, normalization might be broken (or artificially enforced) somewhere I didn’t notice, like in Sleeping Beauty. I’m a bit unsure. What is clear is that there isn’t actually a discontinuity at short times—since the probability comes form the evidence of your memories, not how it “really happened.”
EDIT: There does appear to be an inconsistency when making serial copies—computing it different ways gives different answers. Freaking normalization.